The El Niño weather pattern is projected to intensify even further until 2027, potentially becoming the most potent occurrence on record, heightening the possibility of extreme weather events in the coming year, as per the World Meteorological Organization. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated during a news briefing in Geneva that if the current trend continues, this El Niño could surpass any observed in the last four decades. The WMO confirmed a near 100% certainty that El Niño will persist until February 2027 due to unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, marking the first time such a high level of confidence has been expressed by the organization.
A robust El Niño has the capacity to significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, contributing to extreme weather phenomena like typhoons. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres remarked that El Niño is rapidly intensifying, leading to unprecedented circumstances where the planet is experiencing rising temperatures.
El Niño, characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakened trade winds, occurs naturally every two to seven years, lasting up to 12 months and triggering intense rainfall and droughts across Latin America. The current El Niño event has already impacted soft commodities in tropical regions, leading to a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor.
The WMO anticipates the El Niño event to peak towards the end of this year but expects its effects to linger into 2027, leaving behind elevated global temperatures in the following year. To address this situation, Saulo emphasized that the WMO is enhancing preparedness and early warning systems to mitigate potential risks.
She also highlighted the commitment of the WMO to collaborate closely with partners within the United Nations and humanitarian sectors to provide essential climate insights and intelligence for disaster management and climate-sensitive industries such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.