The past year has been challenging for the Conservative Party. Following a significant General Election defeat, Kemi Badenoch assumed leadership, bypassing the favored candidate, James Cleverly. The recent party conference was marked by numerous empty seats, reflecting a sense of somberness. There has been a notable shift towards Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, with members defecting, including Danny Kruger.
Facing an uphill battle, Badenoch is confronted with the rising influence of Reform as the main opposition, according to Keir Starmer. Polls indicate low public confidence in Badenoch as a potential Prime Minister. Despite internal turmoil and the possibility of a leadership challenge under party rules, there is skepticism about the party’s overall outlook regardless of leadership changes.
Polling expert, Sir John Curtice, highlighted the challenges Badenoch faces due to the party’s past performance in government. While there are slight improvements in public recognition, sentiment towards Badenoch remains largely negative. The need for the Tories to rebuild their reputation as capable leaders is emphasized for any chance of recovery.
Looking ahead, the road to redemption for Badenoch may require distancing from past Tory policies and figures, including Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. Sir John suggested that significant efforts and time may be necessary before the next election to reshape public perception. Despite internal discontent, some members believe in Badenoch’s potential to reconnect with voters, particularly on economic issues.
Although there are signs of improvement within Badenoch’s team, uncertainties loom over the upcoming elections. With discussions emerging about potential future leaders like Katie Lam, the party is at a critical juncture. Year two of Badenoch’s leadership is poised to be decisive, with the need for substantial improvements to secure the party’s standing in the eyes of the public.