The Makerfield constituency appears to be a prime target for the Reform party in an upcoming by-election. Traditionally held by Labour since 1983, the party’s majority was significantly reduced in the 2019 general election, standing at just over 5,000 votes, with Reform UK making significant gains in vote share.
Recent council elections also saw Reform UK perform well in the area, indicating a strong potential for success. Luke Tryl, the UK director of More in Common, noted that Makerfield, where two-thirds of voters supported leaving the EU in the 2016 Brexit referendum, presents an opportunity for Reform to excel.
However, the entrance of Andy Burnham, the popular Greater Manchester Mayor and a prominent Labour figure, into the by-election race may shift the dynamics. Tryl suggested a significant “Burnham boost” in the polls, making Burnham a narrow favorite. The outcome of this by-election is crucial for Burnham’s political ambitions, with defeat potentially ending his aspirations for higher office.
On the other side, Reform is putting considerable effort into the campaign, selecting local plumber Robert Kenyon as its candidate. The party aims to portray Burnham as an outsider, suggesting he prioritizes personal gain over local interests. Despite Reform’s strategy, Burnham’s deep connections to the community and local support may prove advantageous.
The battle for Makerfield is shaping up to be a significant showdown between Burnham and Kenyon, with contrasting narratives highlighting the stakes for both candidates.