Ukraine is counting on Russian forces once again stretching themselves too thin without adequate support, a pattern observed repeatedly in this conflict. Even before the 2022 invasion, Ukrainian soldiers stationed in the Donbas region were well aware of the impending Russian assault.
Despite being outnumbered and lacking sufficient resources, Ukrainian troops understood the need to employ strategic tactics. They were instructed to defend their positions initially but to allow Russian forces to advance if they appeared overwhelmed. One soldier explained the simple plan: “We must let them in and then flank their positions to eliminate them.”
This strategy has proven effective in many instances, with Russia once more showing signs of overextension by prematurely celebrating victories. While Moscow’s troops have made gains in Pokrovsk, reports suggest that several hundred soldiers have already entered the besieged city.
Although capturing Pokrovsk could serve as a crucial logistical base for a deeper incursion into Ukraine, Russia’s progress has been slow amid widespread corruption and disrupted supply chains due to Ukrainian drone attacks. Ukrainian forces have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to outmaneuver Russian troops and push them back on the battlefield.
Intelligence from Ukraine indicates that Russia’s efforts to replenish its forces in Ukraine have hit roadblocks, especially in economically disadvantaged and remote areas like the Republic of Sakha. Poor pay and working conditions have led many eligible men to evade military conscription rather than enlist.
According to Ukrainian intelligence assessments, recruitment centers in certain regions are falling short by approximately 40% of Moscow’s recruitment targets, highlighting growing discontent among residents and fatigue from the prolonged conflict, now in its fourth year.
Throughout the war, Ukraine has displayed confidence in confronting the inept and fumbling Russian military. Last week, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer reiterated unwavering British support for Kyiv in its defense against Russia’s invasion characterized by war crimes and atrocities.
Adapting adeptly to evolving battlefield conditions, Ukraine has successfully integrated high-tech drones and developed its missile capabilities when necessary. The inability of Russian commanders to provide President Putin with accurate assessments, revealing that their advances often lack substance and are swiftly reversed, is likely to lead to their downfall.